It’s been about two months since our prediction about how things would go heading into the winter, and as El Gato recently mentioned, good science is all about testing predictions, so it might be a good moment to look back and see how we did.
The weather turning cold spelling good outcomes for southern states and bad ones for the north was about as hard to predict as the sunrise. We are still a few weeks away from seasonal peaks in these states, but they are already seeing higher case and hospitalization numbers in New England than they did at any time last year. We will see just how bad it gets, but let’s call that a point in favor of our hypothesis.
Next, the compounding effect of deciding to fire anyone in health care who decided the vaccine wasn’t for them. We’re hearing reports that hospitals have been rehiring those they laid off and at higher rates, in what might be the most successful collective employee action in a generation.
Boosters are being pushed and aren’t working and may be making things worse, an easy prediction, but an accurate one. But then we come to the place I fell shortest in my predictions. Mercifully, despite case counts exploding, hospitalization and deaths have been extremely low so far. We don’t need to belabor the point that this is not in any way correlated to vaccines (although I suspect we will in a few months when the politicians start trying to take credit). Rather, the omicron variant seems to be much less lethal and insignificantly different from a common cold or seasonal allergy in most cases. While the emergence of a less dangerous should been predicted, and I probably should have been able to guess at it, it has been impressive how quickly it seems to have become dominant.
So what comes next? Plenty have supposed that omicron should rightly signal the end of the pandemic as a political and economic phenomenon. As the charade of protection through vaccination fades and death statistics cease to terrify, we should all get back to normal as spring comes and even case counts recede once again. This is the most optimistic outcome. A majority of people say enough is enough and just stop complying worldwide as they are already doing in various corners of the globe. The would be tyrants occupying governorship, federal office, and various bureaucratic positions can even claim victory, attributing the success to vaccines and masks and whatever voodoo they want to claim. They might even pretend Florida had a worse fall not because of differences in the lethality of delta vs omicron but because of their failure to obey.
It’s the exit strategy they need because, as I have repeatedly said, they are incapable of admitting error. Nothing frightens the regime more than the loss of legitimacy.
My fear is the old adage “there is nothing more permanent than a temporary government program.” We have created an entire industry around testing for, treating, and vaccinating against COVID. And none of those who have profited are going to willingly give up their cash cow. We are already seeing rapid tests explode, and higher testing means higher case counts means more fearmongering.
My fear is the impulse to keep this going until counts start to climb in the south again next fall will be too strong. They have tasted power they have never known and will not give it up easily.
I suspect political realities will force a correction before November, and even then the red wave which is coming will effectively table the most egregious offenses against liberty. Then begins the process of normalizing the last 2 years. It was necessary, they will say. We got through it together, and as horrible as it was, it worked. There will be some token nods made to freedom, which will have the effect of merely codifying the rest. And then the next crisis will come along and the same measures which were not sufficiently condemned this time will be revitalized and made more oppressive.
Do not let this happen. Do not excuse any of this. Do not allow those who imprisoned you in your home, who took away your livelihood and you freedom, to get away with it. We must truly say never again and we must renounce and reject anyone who disagrees.